Thursday afternoon Tropical Update: Tracking Invest 98-L's path, forecast

Invest 98 is now in the Caribbean, but still not organized as northerly shear and proximity to land keep it sloppy. Models do strengthen the system in the Caribbean by this weekend/early next week as shear relaxes. Models are in descent agreement it nears the Yucatan Channel by Monday or Tuesday of next week, so we will remain quiet in the Gulf through the weekend. The big question remains, where does the system jump off into the Gulf. Models solutions range from the Yucatan Peninsula to Cuba. That's a wide range of scenarios and where the system moves into the Gulf will determine where it goes.