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How to Invest During Crises & War | Investing Lessons for Beginners

2 年前
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(基於 PinQueue 指標)
How to Invest During War & Crises | Stock market for beginners
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How should a beginner invest in stocks? In this another episode of stock market for beginners, we'll learn how to invest during crises and war.
Throughout human history, we have been threatened by various crises. Some of these crises have been financial, like the banking and currency crisis, while others have been economic, like the debt crisis and the sub-prime crisis. But, perhaps the ones that we remember most vividly are social crises like food shortages and high unemployment, along with political and international crises like the current conflict. While global markets have mostly weathered the initial shock of the current crisis, there are quite a few learnings that we can draw from the recent conflict.

Irrespective of the type of crisis, there is always significant noise regarding the latest developments, and this noise inevitably impacts investors. The typical reaction of investors to a crisis is to panic and start selling their Equity investments even if they incur a loss. This decision to sell in a panic is often the wrong one yet it happens every time because of the overwhelming fear of further losses.

But even though you might not make a panic sale during a crisis, finding suitable investments during such periods can prove to be tricky. Some problems that you need to look out for when making investments during a crisis are – high volatility in Equity markets and chances of a double-dip recession.

Most asset classes, sectors, and industries are adversely impacted by war. This is because war leads to trade disruptions, sanctions, higher inflation and tariffs and also a shortage of raw materials. Together these factors can result in a significant 10-30% drop in Equity share prices of many companies.

For example, during the current crises, the price of commodities like wheat, cooking oil, nickel, natural gas, and petroleum have increased considerably. This is a because both Russia and Ukraine export these commodities globally, and the current conflict has led to significant supply disruptions.

Due to this sudden increase in commodities prices globally, economies around the world, including India, will be impacted in the short as well as the medium to long term. But apart from the shortage in commodities and higher input costs, there is another reason for the correction in Equities during times of crisis. This is linked to the perception of investors and the fear that further corrections will occur in Equity markets.

Any crisis, whether economic, geo-political or socio-economic, offers multiple opportunities to grow your wealth. In fact, historical data shows that periods of crisis often help investors generate excess returns, provided they choose investments wisely. The primary reason for this is of course, the behavior of investors in response to any crisis.

Typically at the onset of a crisis, investors usually decide to move their investments to sectors, industries, and asset classes that are considered to be “safe”. These include technology, utilities, consumer staples, and gold. While such investments can help control Equity portfolio losses to some extent, there is no guarantee that these investments will help create wealth in the long term.
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(基於 PinQueue 指標)
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