This week is a discussion of the points of differentiation vs commodification in various AI models. Including how these points might change over time, and might change between language, image, and video models. Then Fraser pivots to orienting around jobs to be done in AI, and how the various models have a huge gap between being capable of doing something, and doing it well.
We then talk about Claude 3, the nature of benchmarking, and the rapid dropping LLM prices. Lastly, we cover a startup subject, debating the merits of SAFE (Simple Agreement for Future Equity) vs. priced equity rounds in early-stage funding.
Links:
- (00:00) - Opening
- (00:31) - Are models an inevitable commodity?
- (05:58) - How image, video, and other models may pan out differently than language
- (08:20) - It's not the model, it's the customer
- (10:20) - Jobs to be done in AI - 1. Can it do it... 2. very well.. 3. exactly how I want it to.
- (22:13) - Claude 3 by Anthropic
- (25:25) - ELO Leaderboard Results
- (26:25) - Claude 3 Haiku and Falling LLM Prices
- (30:33) - SAFES vs priced equity rounds
Josh Miller, Founder and CEO of The Browser Co, joins this week. We loved the experience with Arc Search, a new AI-enabled mobile search experience, we decided to talk to Josh directly about how it all came together.
Topics:
* How Arc Search came to be spawned out of basically a side project
* The core value of "we don't know"
* How the key AI feature 'Browse for Me' was not the initial concept, but came to be added last minute
* Josh's initial skepticism about AI, up until just a few months ago, and what flipped him
* Three strategies for AI integration
* The perils of leading with consumer hooks, how that derailed Browser Co, and focusing on solving problems
* Should cost be a key consideration when developing AI?
Hope you enjoy us mixing it up this week by talking with someone wrestling with building in the space. Drop us a line on twitter at @nabeel and @fraser with what you want to hear more (or less) of.
- (00:00) - Intro
- (01:02) - Welcome Josh, CEO of The Browser Company
- (02:51) - The origin of Arc Search
- (05:12) - Browse For Me
- (06:55) - Overview of Arc Search
- (16:51) - Thinking about competition
- (25:08) - User problems over elegant hooks
- (29:25) - Three strategies for AI integration
- (34:51) - The importance of prototyping
- (40:28) - The future of desktop search
- (46:01) - Thinking about costs when building with AI
Two former founders, now VCs, play with AI products and see where that leads...
Fraser and Nabeel discuss the differences between horizontal disruption and vertical market disruption and the patterns of the phases of this disruption in the mobile age. From Adaptation, to Evolution, and eventually Revolution. Next, they dive into AI email app Shortwave AI. This leads to a conversation around what AI models are optimizing for, and how speed and polish can sometimes be part of the baseline usability of a product.
They also explore the default Agent workflows we should be trying as we figure out the right knowledge worker AI copilot. Using the analogy of the history of web development and AI no code, from webflow to squarespace, what those design approaches might tell us about how AI workflow tools will develop.
Finally, we discuss the potential value of talking to VCs when you're not raising, and the perils of taking even good generalized advice all the time.
* Shortwave email
* Avi Goldfarb and his book Prediction Machines
* Avi also spoke with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
* Yahoo Pipes wikipedia page, or see Retool's amazing history of Pipes
* TLdraw's Makereal
- (00:00) - Intro
- (00:32) - "AI Week" at Startups
- (02:43) - Is it Adaption, Evolution, or Revolution
- (05:23) - Shortwave AI - Adapting email to AI
- (08:07) - Familiar but personalized
- (11:09) - Speed is a feature too
- (15:51) - Taking users on a behavior change journey
- (18:37) - What are Agent workflows we should default to
- (26:04) - TLdraw & Notion, over Pipes, as the core UX for AI
- (29:43) - TLDraw as metaphor for "show me the output" application building
- (31:13) - History of Web Development as analogy for AI no code
- (33:37) - Is it worth talking to VCs when you aren't raising
- (43:24) - Building relationships, Bizdev vs Sales
Reviewing voice note transcription apps, from WaveAI to Audiopen and ChatGPT. Then Fraser and Nabeel take stock of various ways AI coding is affecting software development, from Co-Pilots to "mealeable software development" and No-Code AI. Lastly, the hosts talk through a wish list of products they'd love to see this year.
Topics discussed:
- Slowed Pace of AI Product Launches
- Wave AI app, and what to look for in voice notes transcription
- Current state of AI-enabled software tools
- Potential impact of AI on software development workflows
- What is the AI native storytelling medium
- The AI todo list partner
- Coding as a liberal art
- User input layer and direct feedback in AI-enabled tools
References:
- Wave AI
- Meable Software in the age of LLMs
- Zapier AI
- Replit
- (00:00) -
- (01:39) - Wave AI
- (06:29) - Adapting Behavior to Leverage AI Products
- (12:54) - AI Enabled Software Development
- (13:46) - Infinitely Adaptable UIs via AI
- (18:31) - Zapier ++
- (20:51) - AI Enabled Software Engineers
- (31:31) - Different Products Across Each Layer
- (34:48) - AI Products We'd Like to See in 2024
Fraser and Nabeel discuss the onslaught of AI hardware launches, exploring the potential factors behind this shift. They also discuss the importance of designing not by listening to your customer but by understanding the customer. The duo also discuss the importance and challenges surrounding 'prompt engineering' vs prompt writing, using BARD, SunoAI and Perplexity as case examples. They cover the layoffs in tech startups, examining the tension between growth and profitability and the potential drawbacks of a too-aggressive cost-cutting focus. Finally, they delve into the potential of AI in generating music, trying SunoAI.
Links:
- OpenAI Prompt Engineering guide
- Rabbit - new AI hardware companion
- Snipd - Podcast player
- Remarkable - Dedicated tablet for note writing
- SunoAI - AI music creation
- (00:00) - Designing AI Hardware, Prompt engineering vs prompt writing, Suno AI
- (00:47) - The era of AI hardware?
- (01:28) - Why it's the right time for AI Hardware startups
- (06:34) - YouTube, and building on top of another platform
- (08:37) - Is AI Hardware destined to be a phone appendage?
- (10:58) - Nobs, dials, and the joy of tactile
- (11:38) - The GPT Store: Should founders care?
- (17:57) - New year starts with a thud, layoffs
- (19:52) - How founders can pitch taking risk in 2024
- (23:12) - Prompt Engineering Lives On
- (24:48) - Snipd's Summaries
- (27:37) - When do you use prompts vs your roll your own model
- (33:21) - My model vs yours, it depends on the goal
- (35:11) - Consumer Web Agents
- (37:25) - The problem isn't Actions, it's Context
- (43:25) - Exploring Bard and Gemini Pro
- (46:59) - Perplexity, Search and Synthesize
- (49:23) - Prompt Engineering vs Prompt Writing
- (52:32) - Suno AI
- (54:44) - What products lend themselves to Discord communities
- (56:25) - Live test of Suno AI
Nabeel and Fraser briefly discuss Google's new AI model, Gemini, and keeping authenticity in startup pitches. They discuss the perils of trying to simplify when technology is lending towards complexity. How to stay authentic to yourself when pitching and fundraising. The new findings of Claude prompting, and the likely continued need for prompt engineering. Finally, they talk about the startup SuperPowered, its potential pivot, and how passion for problem-solving can impact a company's direction.
* Google Gemini's excellent product video "demo"
* History of Razorfish
* Claude 2.1 Prompting Technique
* AI Meeting notes from Superpowered.me
- (00:00) - Building when entropy is increasing
- (01:00) - Introduction and Welcome
- (01:15) - Discussing the Frequency of AI Developments
- (01:45) - Google's AI Developments and the Gemini Team
- (02:19) - Explaining Gemini and its Significance
- (05:04) - Analyzing Google Gemini from afar
- (18:02) - You are 5 words away from being done
- (27:00) - The analogy of the early web vs early LLMs
- (30:05) - Do we need the Razorfish of AI
- (33:27) - The Future of AI Tools and Platforms
- (34:11) - The Importance of Implementation Engineers in AI
- (35:54) - Are we in an entropic or de-entropy phase?
- (37:57) - The Importance of Authenticity in Marketing
- (38:53) - Founders just being real
- (47:28) - How would you fundraise differently now?
- (50:15) - Superpowered.me and AI Note Taking Startups
Nabeel gets to ask Fraser for reflections on the development of ChatGPT on the one-year anniversary. They talk about the intersection of product managers and AI researchers, how ChatGPT came to be on the roadmap, how the team came to be formed, and the difference between polish & overengineering. They then discuss the recent explosion of real-time AI painting applications, the divide between text-based UIs and GUIs in AI products, and redesigning new creative arts at the intersections of art, realtime, and play.
* Aliisa on the night of ChatGPT's launch
* Martin Nebelong's Realtime painting experiements
* Fastlane.AI Painting
* Kepano - Photoshop for text
- (00:00) - Introduction
- (00:46) - Quotes from the ChatGPT 1 year anniversary
- (07:19) - Lessons from ChatGPT development
- (08:55) - It's not a happy accident
- (09:36) - The Birth of the AI Assistant
- (10:12) - Forming the ChatGPT team
- (19:15) - Differences between polish & overengineering
- (23:47) - Realtime AI Painting
- (25:47) - GUIs make it easier, so prompts can get harder
- (32:35) - Twitch meets the creative arts?
The conversation kicks off with the surprising news of Sam Altman’s departure from OpenAI. Nabeel and Fraser then discuss the ‘crazy week’ of product releases, demystifying the complexity and impact of AI in various workflows. They spotlight AI startup Lindy, review My GPTS, and early impressions of the product Dot, an AI-driven guide in daily life. The duo categorizes AI developments into three ‘buckets’: lead bullet strategy, a universal translator bucket, and inventing new behaviors.
- (00:00) - The three types of LLM products
- (02:07) - Exploring Lindy
- (08:21) - GPTs
- (15:52) - Frameworks for AI Product Development
- (20:21) - Dot: Your Guide in Life
- (26:07) - Revisiting Categorization
- (29:45) - Patience in Innovation
In this conversation, discussions revolve around the recent OpenAI Dev Day, the Reflect note taking app, and how founders should internalize the "threat" and partnership opportunities with OpenAI. Fraser & Nabeel discuss that it's still "fart app and flashlight" early days for developers to truly utilize the capabilities of technologies like ChatGPT. The conversation then shifts to Reflect, a note-taking app that utilises AI to optimise features like speech-to-text and backlinking. The speakers debate whether one company can excel in both consumer-facing products and developer platforms, highlighting how OpenAI is in a unique position to potentially 'run the table' across various booming markets.
- (00:00) - Are My GPTs an app store or chrome store?
- (01:00) - Open AI Dev Day
- (01:33) - Exploring MyGPTs
- (08:44) - Difficulty and Promise of App Stores
- (11:28) - Surprises of the first year since Chat GPT
- (14:14) - Investor influence on founders
- (19:36) - Coming to terms with the AI fog of war as a founder
- (21:54) - Exploring Reflect: A New Note-Taking App
- (26:45) - Will OpenAI be able to be consumer & enterprise?
Fraser & Nabeel get things up and running again at Hallway Chat. How AI is changing search engines, comparing Perplexity with Google, and what just goes to ChatGPT & Claude. "Shipping your org chat". Debating Sam Lessin's recent "State of Venture Capital" and whether AI in startups is just magical thinking. The app of the week: Snipd, an AI podcast player
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Follow us on Twitter @nabeel | @fraser
Hey ya'll. In todays show we discuss Apple and service-based software releasing, the PS5 and why we play games, creating a middle class Creator Economy, blogging in 2021 and finding your voice on the internet, being a VC only in up times. It's our first episode of the new year, Nabeel and Bijan are joined by our new Spark colleague, Brian Watson!
We are back with a long overdue edition of Hallway Chat. Todays episode, Bijan and Nabeel discuss: investing during a pandemic (ie 2020 vs 2019), how we are working from home (technology and schedule), some likely controversial thoughts about remote work, AirPods woes, and a few memorable moments at Postmates. Thanks for listening and as always tweet us with comments/questions/suggestions.
After a one year-ish break, Nabeel and Bijan are back with a shiny new episode! In this pod, we chat about things on our minds lately including, is VC pattern recognition actually valuable, what does the decline of the iPhone mean to Apple's future, the potential for single purpose electronics, and challenging the dogma of "winner takes all" markets in startups.
A podcast by Bijan Sabet and Nabeel Hyatt, partners at Spark Capital. Recorded: December 13, 2017: Show summary: Bitcoin Frenzy, Tech company morality, the iMac Pro, and startup hard decisions
Another episode of Hallway Chat. Bijan and Nabeel. Recorded November 16, 2017. Show notes: - iPhone X, including new apps - Musical.ly’s exit and the notion that “mobile consumer is dead” - The changes in the VC landscape, from the moral awakening to the explosion of seeds - Eugene Wei’s blog post on Amazon and analytics - Gadget gifts: Rylo, Molekule, Aura
5/19/2017: Hey, we're back with another episode of Hallway Chat. Show notes: Clay Bavor's Virtual & Augmented Realities http://bit.ly/2pNfVra Reid Hoffman's Masters of Scale podcast https://mastersofscale.com/ Tim O'Reilly's response to Masters of Scale https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/some-businesses-bleed-black-tim-o-reilly Google's ongoing tranformation into an AI company, as evidenced in Google I/O, Google Photos, and elsewhere (along with my ongoing disbelief that Nabeel uses Apple Maps) Competing, from copying to net neutrality
Recorded 2/10/17. Summary: Nabeel and Bijan discuss a few favorite new apps, some thoughts about current American politics & the moral awakening of Silicon Valley, Related links: Teuxdeux: https://teuxdeux.com/ 10% Happier: https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/meditation-for-fidgety-skeptics/id992210239?mt=8 Anil Dash: Tech Moral Reckoning: http://onbeing.org/programs/anil-dash-techs-moral-reckoning/
Hi everyone! @nabeel and @bijan are back with a new podcast to kick off the new year. This episode of Hallway Chat, we are joined by our fellow Spark partner Kevin Thau (@kevinthau). We talked about the new Apple Airpods, Apple vs Google apps for iOS, Bijan's beef with mail apps for iOS, Nabeel's crazy love affair with Apple Maps, Voice assistants (Echo, Siri, Google Home).
Nabeel and Bijan discussed Google I/O 2016 and some thoughts about all the choices developers have to consider in a world with so many different platforms.
Another episode of Hallway Chat with @nabeel and @bijan Topics: how the Tesla 3 has presold so much, Cruise and navigating the new rush of autonomous driving startups, Nest/Echo and what it takes to keep innovating, Snapchat’s social trajectory, and the march towards replacing MacOS with iOS. Please tweet us your questions & suggestions! Thanks so much for listening.
A podcast by Bijan Sabet and Nabeel Hyatt, partners at Spark Capital. In todays show, we were joined by special guest and our friend, Fred Wilson.
Show notes:
-questions from Twitter, including how Fred started investing in social media, & YC's recent move to recommend exercising options from 90 days to 10 years
-Fred's post, "The New Entertainment Bundlers"
-Chris Dixon's, "What's Next In Computing?"
-Why haven't we seen a new breakout consumer app
-AI
-Steph Curry vs Michael Jordan
