Far more active across the Atlantic than we have been this season. Although, not surprising as September is the busiest month in hurricane season. Fiona is a powerful category 4 hurricane move norther. It'll stay just west of Bermuda Thursday night/Friday morning then head toward Maritime Canada this weekend as a powerful storm.
Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Gaston will remain over the open central Atlantic, no threat to land. There are two other areas in the deep Atlantic that could develop some this week, but they are not threats right now.
Approaching the Caribbean is of more interest, Invest 98. The system will likely struggle the next few days as it battles wind shear from the north. This shear is mainly due to outflow from powerful Hurricane Fiona to its north. By this weekend the system will be in the central Caribbean and in a much better environment.
All signs point towards it organizing more this weekend in the Central Caribbean. By early next week the system will start to feel the tug of a trough over North America. This is what will pull the system north towards the Gulf. The timing of this trough and strength of the system is very important and will determine where Invest 98 would track in the Gulf, should the system reach the Gulf.
If the trough swings by too quickly or Invest 98 remains too weak, it might not feel the tug as much and turn more slowly. However, if the trough is slower and Invest 98 stronger, then it would likely turn more dramatically toward the northeast. Obviously 10 days out remains very inaccurate and the forecast will very likely change. Keep in mind: we don't a center to track and we still have 7-10 days to track. By this weekend we'll have a clearer picture. Something to watch beyond this weekend. Lots of time to prepare if necessary.
Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Gaston will remain over the open central Atlantic, no threat to land. There are two other areas in the deep Atlantic that could develop some this week, but they are not threats right now.
Approaching the Caribbean is of more interest, Invest 98. The system will likely struggle the next few days as it battles wind shear from the north. This shear is mainly due to outflow from powerful Hurricane Fiona to its north. By this weekend the system will be in the central Caribbean and in a much better environment.
All signs point towards it organizing more this weekend in the Central Caribbean. By early next week the system will start to feel the tug of a trough over North America. This is what will pull the system north towards the Gulf. The timing of this trough and strength of the system is very important and will determine where Invest 98 would track in the Gulf, should the system reach the Gulf.
If the trough swings by too quickly or Invest 98 remains too weak, it might not feel the tug as much and turn more slowly. However, if the trough is slower and Invest 98 stronger, then it would likely turn more dramatically toward the northeast. Obviously 10 days out remains very inaccurate and the forecast will very likely change. Keep in mind: we don't a center to track and we still have 7-10 days to track. By this weekend we'll have a clearer picture. Something to watch beyond this weekend. Lots of time to prepare if necessary.
