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别急!市场刚刚下跌一半|经济萧条的第2阶段即将来临| 传奇投资大师格兰瑟姆(Jeremy Grantham) 对投资者的警告!【艾财说060】

1 年前
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这段时间的市场情况出现非常清晰的两极化。一方面,美联储加息初见成效。通胀从最高点9%一路下跌到5%,失业率维持低位,标普500从去年10月开始, 上涨了16%,比特币上涨82%,很多人满心欢喜认为危机已经过去牛市已经来临。而另一方面,经济基本面数据越来越差,银行发生倒闭潮,存款从不受保护的小银行疯狂涌入受保护的大银行,破产请算的公司暴涨到12年最高,美联储预期2023年会发生经济衰退。所以到底经济走势如何?2023年到2024年初到底会不会迎来一场深入的经济危机呢?美国GMO资产管理公司的主席Jeremy Grantham 在几周前的一次长达60分钟的采访中完整讲述了自己对于经济的预期。其实最糟糕的情况还远远没有到来。Jeremy Grantham 建立了美国历史上最早的指数基金之一,曾经因为准确预测3次重大市场泡沫为华尔街熟知,被誉为“泡沫预言家”。1989年日本资产泡沫破裂前三年,他已清仓日本资产果断离场。2000年互联网泡沫和2008年金融危机前夕他就警告,市场即将见顶,这些预测最后全都应验。本期影片我们就来听听这位传奇投资者对于未来经济的预期,普通人如何为这场危机做好准备,全身而退。

00:00 市场刚刚下跌一半!
01:46 泡沫历史将会重演
03:56 现在是下跌期的一半还是已经结束
05:51 痛苦的第二阶段
07:40 泡沫的各个阶段
08:57 历史上的软着陆
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